India's big telecom companies, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, will be forced to slash data rates soon to hold on to their upper-end customers with Reliance Jio Infocomm's decision to offer unlimited voice and nearly 30 GB of data at a modest monthly charge of Rs 303 from April 1, analysts and industry experts said.Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani on Tuesday said existing Jio customers would have to pay a nominal Rs 99 membership fee and another Rs 303 a month to avail of all the benefits of the unlimited voice and data `Happy New Year' offer.
Jio's latest move, they said, is clearly aimed at luring Airtel, Vodafone and Idea's top-end customers, among whom a section is reckoned to be already using Jio as a second SIM.
"Holding on to these upper-end customers will be pivotal for the big three to remain profitable in the coming quarters as these users generate over 60% of their revenues," a senior industry executive, who did not wish to be named, told ET.
Brokerage Sanford Bernstein said Bharti Airtel is likely to have the least number of defectors because of its national 4G coverage and a premium brand position. "Idea, with no 4G coverage in Delhi and restricted 4G spectrum in Mumbai, is likely to see the highest rate of defection. We expect Vodafone to be somewhere in the middle," the house said.
The existing players say they are aware that desperate remedies by way of steep data rate cuts to hold on to top-end subscribers could come at a huge cost for the incumbents. "Any effort to match Jio's tariffs could progressively shave off nearly 40-50% of the revenue that Airtel, Vodafone and Idea typically generate from upper-tier customers, which would hit the overall average revenue per user (ARPU) and hurt both, the top-line and bottom-line," said the executive of a leading telco.
According to industry experts, upper-end customers on an average generate monthly ARPUs in the Rs 700-1,000 range, and that could fall sharply if the incumbent biggies are i forced to reduce the price points of their he avy data packs.Incumbent carriers could end up "paying a , heavy price" for not doing enough to ring fence their high-end cus tomers since Jio's entry last September, the ex perts said.
"Most have essentially fo cused on holding on to prepaid users by offering discounts, instead of taking proactive steps to retain top-end users, who might now find Jio's offer of nearly 30 GB of 4G data with unlimited voice calling at Rs303 month super enticing," they pointed out.
Rajan Mathews, director general of the Cellular Operators Association of India, agreed that incumbents "would definitely come up with competing price points to hold on to their valued, high-end customers," but added that Jio's decision to charge "is bound to bring a sense of relief" to the sector as the services will not be free anymore from April.
Nitin Soni, director at rating agency Fitch, had earlier told ET that he expected incumbents' data revenue per user to shrink by 1520% over a 12-month span, post Jio's launch.Industry experts, in fact, expect top incumbent carriers to see a sharp 25% fall in data realisations over the next one year.
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